A survey commissioned by the American Gaming Association found broad U.S. support for treating prediction markets as gambling products rather than financial products, adding a public-opinion dimension to the industry’s regulatory fight over sports-event contracts.
The poll of 2,268 adults found that 82% backed gambling-style regulation. Support crossed party affiliations, with 84% of Democrats, 82% of Republicans and 90% of independents taking that position. Semafor reported the findings on Nov. 13.
Three quarters of respondents said buying and selling sports-event contracts was fundamentally the same as placing a wager with a sportsbook. The research used Qualtrics software and had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
The AGA used the results to reinforce its argument that states and Tribal governments, rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, should oversee prediction-market sports products. Bill Miller, the association’s president and chief executive, said Americans were united against the marketing of sports gambling as investing.
The association contends that platforms are offering illegal sports betting outside state and Tribal regulatory frameworks. It said the products bypass licensing, consumer protections and taxes, and estimated that states had forgone more than $1.66 billion in tax revenue since late 2025. The estimate reflected both platforms’ lack of state tax payments and bettors shifting from sportsbooks to exchanges, according to the AGA.
Prediction-market operators maintain that their products differ from conventional bookmaking because they do not take a side in a wager and operate on a purported peer-to-peer basis. Sports-related event contracts are binary derivatives in which participants take opposing positions on the outcome of a future event, with successful positions paid after resolution.
The dispute remains legally unsettled. Prediction markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, while states and Tribes have argued that sports contracts amount to gambling subject to their own registration, consumer-protection and tax rules. Kalshi has CFTC approval to operate a designated contract market, including for sports-based contracts, but states and Tribes have challenged such offerings.
As reported in September, the AGA has already urged a federal court in New York to reject a CFTC injunction request in a case concerning the extent of state authority over sports-event contracts.
The new poll is more supportive of gambling-style treatment than a March survey commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men, in which 61% of adults said event contracts were closer to gambling than investing and about 59% favored similar regulation. More than nine in 10 respondents in that earlier poll considered prediction-market trading financially risky and akin to cryptocurrency investing or a sports bet.
